The Unimportance of the Session Winning Rate
Today I would like to discuss one of the most misleading mathematical statistics in all casino gambling: The session winning rate.
Simply put, the session winning rate is the number of winning sessions over the total number of sessions played. So, if I win 9 out of 10 sessions, I have a 90% session winning rate. Sounds very impressive, doesn’t it? Many systems — especially those involving negative progressions exclusively — tout this amazing mathematical statistic as proof positive of their great earning power.
Well, don’t be impressed or fooled by any system that proves its worth by its session winning rate. The only proof you should rely on is the total units won or lost. That’s the only mathematically significant statistic am interested in.
You see, the problem with the session winning rate is that it doesn’t qualify its wins. A one or two unit win is counted the same as a 100 unit win. Consequently, a player could win 9 sessions, two units each, but lose 50 units on the tenth session and still show a 90% session winning rate. But the player is down 28 units!
As a Benson player, I can easily maintain a 50-60% session winning rate and find myself way ahead because I monitor the quality of my wins and the quality of my losses. This is key because we will all lose at one time or another in our daily play. But if our losses are neutralized by our average wins, then our big wins will catapult us way ahead of the average. But to do this you must monitor your wins and losses through your money management and departure rules, not by your session winning rates.
I am always concerned with eliminating that big loss and capitalizing on my big wins. If not, you’ll be constantly taking two steps forward then two steps back. Unless your session winning rate falls below 40%, I wouldn’t worry. Look, I’d gladly take 10 days of play where I lose 2 units for 9 sessions in a row but find myself winning 50 units on the tenth session. True, I have a 10% session winning rate but, hey, I’m up 28 units, not down. Think about it.