The Biggest Illusion in the Casino
You had no idea that there is a magic act going on in the casino each time you play craps, did you? That’s right. A total illusion! Let me explain.
I believe in craps it is better to first REDUCE YOUR BETS. One of our craps strategies is based on the conversion of come bets to place bets and the reduction of these place bets to minimal bets to lock in profits. By reducing place bets, you are usually ahead whether you increase your bets or stay the same.
If you don’t believe me, let me give you a simple example. Let’s take three place bets on the 6, 8 and 9 and follow what happens when we reduce our bets (Scenario I) versus staying at the same unit (Scenario II). Starting with a $60 6, $60 8 and a $50 9, let’s follow what happens in each scenario.
On the first roll, the shooter throws a 6. Scenario I collects $70 on the 6 and reduces it to $30. Scenario II collects $70.
On the second roll, the shooter throws 8. Scenario I collects $70, reduces the 8 to $30. Scenario II collects $70.
On the third roll, the shooter throws a 9. Scenario I collects $70, reduces 9 to $25. Scenario II collects $70.
So after three wins, both Scenario I and II collect the same $210. But the player in Scenario II can boast at what he still has on the table: $60 on the 6 and 8 and $50 on the 9! Instead of $30 on the 6 and 8 and just $25 on the 9.
But here is a perfect example of what I call the biggest illusion in the casino! That is, it’s true that Scenario II has bigger bets on the table than Scenario I, but the profits are on the table, NOT IN THE RACK! It will take three more hits on those inside numbers to catch Scenario I and a fourth hit to really go ahead. You want to see? Watch...
Let’s say the shooter should seven out after this third hit. Scenario I just made $210 minus the $85 on the table for a profit of $125. Scenario II also won $210 minus the $170 still on the table for a profit of $40.
Okay, let’s say the shooter should throw another 6. Scenario I wins $35, Scenario II wins $70. Scenario II can now boast the greater profit. But is it really a greater profit? With a seven out on the next roll, Scenario I wins $245 minus the $85 on the table for a profit of $160. Scenario II wins $280 minus the $170 for a profit of just $110.
Let’s say the roll continues. The shooter throws another 8. Scenario I wins $280 minus the $85 for a profit of $195. Scenario II wins $350 minus the $170 for a profit of $180. Now do you see why I call it the biggest illusion in the casino?
Even with another hit on the 6, Scenario I wins $315 minus the $85 for a profit of $230. Scenario II wins $420 minus the $170 for a profit of $250.
It took six hits for Scenario II to catch up and pull slightly ahead of Scenario I! You need one more hit to make a significant difference in profit. That’s why it’s an illusion. You think you’ve won a lot of money but it’s on the table. And a seven out makes it all disappear. Up to this sixth win, Scenario I is usually ahead and I don’t think worth the risk for the one hot roll that hardly ever happens anyway. Till next time.